December 31, 1998 Newsletter
December 31, 1998
Dear Shareholder:
A Time for Cheers and Bronx Cheers: A year ago I wrote in this letter that
you could expect "flat-tax" proposals to be talked about in 1998. That has
happened. But I also said that I thought it would be hard for these proposals to
get very far along the road to passage. Indeed, the subject seems to have dropped
somewhat from the political scene for now, and I expect it will eventually disappear
entirely unless Steve Forbes again mounts a Presidential campaign based on this
proposal. So that prognostication was mostly accurate.
I next said that "Asian Flu" would depress the economy in 1998 a lot more
than the ½ of 1% reduction to the GNP being predicted at the time. It appears GNP
growth may be down a full 1%, twice what was being predicted, but I can't claim much
credit. While I didn't use a figure, I really expected a faster slowing than that,
say, 1 ½% to 2%.
In conjunction with that expected slowdown I obviously assumed that the stock
market would be down as well. Well, that was certainly wrong. At this point in late
December it looks like the Dow will close the year up about 1400 points. Bronx Cheers!
Finally I suggested that later in the year the Federal Reserve Board might
actually lower interest rates. That was a 100% winner. Going with that prediction
was the assumption the bond market might get a lot stronger. The Treasury market is,
indeed, much stronger. The thirty year Treasury bonds yielded 5.87% at that time and
that has dropped below 5.00% several times this year. What was unexpected is that
municipal bonds are only slightly stronger than they were at that date, and are
currently selling at tax-free yields almost as high a fully taxable Treasury bonds.
That is almost unheard of, and suggests municipals are an amazing bargain at these
levels.
The wise thing would be to leave stock market predictions alone since every
conservative has been wrong on that subject for several years. But, I'll get reckless
and take one more shot. The latest BusinessWeek has a chart in its "Business Outlook"
section showing earnings per share for the S&P 500 as follows:
PERCENT CHANGE - REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHARE FOR S&P 500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
+11% +14% +2.5% -1.0% .00%
(figures rounded to nearest half percent. 1998 and 1999 are forecasts)
In spite of the dramatic slowing of increases in 1997 and the actual decline of
earnings in 1998 the S&P index has climbed from 975.04 on January 2, 1998 to an
incredible 1228.54 on the date this is written. That is nearly a 26% gain coming in
the face of declining economic fundamentals. There are reasons for this, of course,
but none of them are rational. For example, there is a strong belief that the investor
no longer analyzes stock purchases as in days "of old" and that traditional earnings
multiples can be ignored because (with occasional small corrections) we now live in
a new world in which the stock market will always go up!
As long as enough investors believe that, it will be a self fulfilling prophecy.
Indeed, it has been a self fulfilling prophecy for several years. But it gives the
cynics a chance to quote the "Greater Fool Theory", namely "I'll buy this at its
current high price because, later, a greater fool will buy it from me at a higher price".
A Year of Blessings: Lest I sound like the Grinch, let me quickly say our strong
stock market of past years has been a wonderful tonic for the American economy. So I
hope it continues in spite of its irrationality.
Meanwhile, good things are happening to us.
MUTUAL FUNDS Magazine has rated the Dupree fund family at five stars, their top
rating. This is a family rating, averaging all funds in the family. The rating was
published just this month and puts us in the same class with Legg Mason, Strong, Stein
Roe, Janus and Vanguard. Impressive company to be with! MUTUAL FUNDS has become the most
respected and widely read publication dealing exclusively with the mutual fund industry.
Our two North Carolina Funds have now been in business for three years and have
been rated by Morningstar Rating Services. The North Carolina Tax-Free Short-to-Medium
Series was rated five star, their highest performance rating. The North Carolina Tax-Free
Income Series was rated four star, their next highest rating, but in addition, was in
the top one percent of all single state long term funds with which it is compared as to
total return (713 funds). It was the top performing North Carolina tax-free bond fund
for the one and three year period ending November 30, 1998, according to Morningstar Inc.
The Tennessee Tax-Free Short-to-Medium Series was rated five star, again their
highest performance rating, ranking in the top ten percent of funds with which it is
compared. The Tennessee Tax-Free Income Series was rated four star but was also in the
top one percent of all single state long term funds with which it is compared using a
total return comparison. It was also the top performing Tennessee tax-free bond fund
for the one and three year period ending November 30, 1998, according to Morningstar, Inc.
The Kentucky Tax-Free Income Series was rated five star and the Kentucky Short-to-
Medium Series was rated four star. For many years the Short-to-Medium Series was five
star so it has an average rating of 4.5 stars for the 99 months it has been rated.
Please excuse our bragging when we say this is incredible recognition to have
from such top rating agencies. And none of us have a Harvard MBA!
Happy New Year,
Dupree Mutual Funds
Thomas P. Dupree, Sr.
President
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