Dear
Shareholder:
Municipal Market
Update:
Municipal bonds turned in a solid performance
during the first quarter as the supply of tax-exempt bonds continued to tighten
and money continued to flow out of low-yielding cash and cash-equivalents into
the bond market in search of higher yields. Strong demand, coupled with a tight
supply of tax-exempt bonds, resulted in higher prices and lower yields. Treasury and municipal bond yields increased
(i.e., prices decreased) somewhat towards the end of the quarter as investor
concerns over the federal budget deficit mounted.
On the credit front, almost three
years into the financial crisis, the credit quality of all eight of our
municipal bond portfolios remains very strong.
We continue to keep a close watch on state and local economies as they
work through their budget problems.
Similarly, we continue to carefully scrutinize bonds we own and any
bonds that we are considering adding to our portfolios in order to protect our shareholders
in this difficult environment.
Notwithstanding some alarming headlines
predicting a “municipal meltdown”, the market has not experienced a significant
rise in the default rate of securities issued by cities, states, and local
governments. The few defaults that have made
the news recently have been confined
almost exclusively to securities backed by real estate developments (a/k/a
“dirt bonds”) and other debts not secured by the pledge of governments (i.e.,
private activity bonds). We don’t own
any of these riskier types of securities in our municipal bond portfolios. Sometimes being an old-fashioned conservative
municipal bond fund manager has its advantages!
The Bigger Picture
and the Fed’s Exit Strategy:
Most economists expect economic growth
to continue on a moderate path. Economists
at the Federal Reserve are forecasting economic growth of between 3.0 to 3.5
percent in 2010 and 3.5 to 4.5 percent in 2011.
High levels of unemployment and persistent weakness in real estate continue
to hamper the economic recovery. Businesses and consumers are still busy
cleaning up their balance sheets by reducing debt through a process called deleveraging. A sobering report recently issued by McKinsey
& Company points out that, historically, deleveraging episodes on average
last six to seven years. So, if
history is any guide, the deleveraging process will continue for a few more
years and will be a significant drag on economic growth going forward.
On a more positive note, there is
still no evidence of a pickup in inflation or inflation expectations. The Fed’s preferred price index, which
excludes food and energy costs, rose 1.3 percent in February from a year
earlier. This is below the long-term
range of 1.7 percent to 2.0 percent that the Fed typically finds
acceptable. This is good news for the
bond market.
William McChesney Martin,
Federal Reserve officials affirmed their
pledge to keep the fed funds rate near zero for an “extended period” after its
most recent meeting on March 16. The pertinent
language of the Fed’s policy statement was as follows: “Economic conditions, including low rates of
resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation
expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal
funds rate for an extended period.” It
appears unlikely that the Fed will raise short-term interest rates in the near
future. Ben Bernanke is a scholar of the
Great Depression and knows firsthand the risks associated with tightening
monetary policy too soon with a still fragile economy.
Notwithstanding this, the Fed has
taken other steps to ensure that when the time is right it will have the tools
to respond. The Fed is discontinuing its
purchases of mortgage-backed and agency debt securities and winding down other
special liquidity facilities it created during the financial crisis. In mid-February, the Fed raised the discount
rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% which is the first step towards restoring the
normal 1% spread between the discount rate and fed funds rate. The Fed has also been authorized by Congress
to pay interest on banks’ holdings of reserve and excess balances at Federal
Reserve Banks. By paying interest on
reserves, the Fed will be in a better position to exert upward pressure on the
fed funds rate when it deems it necessary to do so. The Fed also plans to use reverse repurchase
agreements as a means of absorbing excess bank reserves. The Fed’s exit strategy has been plotted--we’ll
have to wait and see how and when it is rolled out.
New & Improved
Website:
I am pleased to report that we have
completed an overhaul of our website.
The website address remains the same and can be found at www.dupree-funds.com. We think you will find the new website to be
user friendly and an improvement over the old one. Complete up-to-date information for all nine
of our funds is posted on our website as well as an account application and
other frequently used forms. I hope you
will take our new website for a test drive.
Sincerely,
Allen
E. Grimes, III
Executive
Vice President